WKU About to Put Sam Houston Back in the Kiddie Pool

Ah, Week 0. The time of year when sickos like me bet conference games in late August just because the sportsbook app still works. And who do we get under the Saturday night lights of Bowling Green? Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston.

Vegas says the Hilltoppers are -10.5 favorites, and for once, the oddsmakers actually got it right. Let’s break this one down.

Sam Houston’s “Miracle” Season Was a One-Hit Wonder

Credit where it’s due — Sam Houston had themselves a cute little Cinderella run last year. They went from 3-9 to 10-3, grabbed a bowl win, and strutted around like they’d just discovered football in Texas. Problem is, the second the confetti stopped falling, the roster turned into an episode of Storage Wars.

• Head coach K.C. Keeler? Gone. Took the Temple job.
• Defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity? Gone. North Texas backed up a truck for him.
• Their best starters? Gone. Scattered across Auburn, Duke, Virginia Tech, UAB, and basically every school that can afford shinier weight rooms.
• What’s left? A bunch of JUCOs, freshmen, and 33 transfers who just figured out where the dining hall is.

And that defense everyone drooled over in 2024? The one that was top-25 nationally and carried them to 10 wins? Not a single starter returns. Not one. If you lined up this year’s Bearkats defense in the local intramural flag league, nobody would notice the difference.

Enter Phil Longo: Air Raid and Aspirin

Sam Houston’s new head coach is Phil Longo, the guy who spent the last decade hopping around as an offensive coordinator at Ole Miss, UNC, and Wisconsin. He’s an Air Raid guy, which means get ready for 55 passes, four wide receivers, and your punter Googling “Indeed jobs” by halftime.

Here’s the issue: Longo inherited a defense with zero experience, a patchwork offensive line, and a quarterback battle featuring Hunter Watson (12 TDs, 8 INTs last year) and a pair of Wisconsin cast-offs. Watson is a gamer — tough kid, runs hard, will lower his shoulder — but if you think he’s about to go throw-for-throw with what WKU is about to unleash, you’ve been tailgating on moonshine.

WKU: Quarterback U of Conference USA

If you don’t know by now, Western Kentucky is basically Air Raid University. They’ve produced the nation’s leading passer four times since 2014. Bailey Zappe threw for 9,000 yards in a single semester. Austin Reed turned himself into a Sunday draft pick. And now it’s Maverick McIvor’s turn.

McIvor comes in after lighting up Abilene Christian for 3,800 yards and 30 TDs. Oh, and he casually hung 506 passing yards on Texas Tech last year. Against his old team. At a Big 12 stadium. Yeah, he can play.

Tyson Helton does this every year. New OC, new QB, plug-and-play. The Tops don’t rebuild, they reload with whatever gunslinger wants to chuck it 50 times a night. McIvor is walking into the perfect storm: an offense designed for video game numbers, receivers galore (including KD Hutchinson, who cooked Sam Houston for 88 yards last year), and a defense that at least knows how to line up.

Home-Field Edge: Bowling Green at Night

Let’s not overthink it. This one’s in Bowling Green, Kentucky. Homecoming vibes, late August humidity, fans full of bourbon and barbecue. Sam Houston ain’t bringing 20,000 fans up I-65. WKU is comfy at home. Bearkats are on the road in front of a stadium that’s seen more 500-yard passing games than most programs see in a lifetime. Advantage: Tops.

The History Lesson

Western Kentucky is 2-0 against Sam Houston since the Bearkats joined CUSA. Last year, WKU not only beat them but kept them out of the title game with a last-second field goal. The Tops don’t just win these matchups — they ruin Sam Houston’s holidays.

So here comes Longo with a brand-new roster, trying to overturn a program that’s already been cooked by WKU two years running. Newsflash: you don’t flip the script with a patchwork defense and a quarterback battle that sounds like the undercard at a county fair.

Matchup Breakdown

Quarterbacks: McIvor > Watson and friends. By a mile.
Skill talent: WKU brought in actual FBS receivers. Sam Houston raided the clearance bin.
Defense: Both lost starters, but WKU still has some proven guys. Sam Houston has vibes and prayers.
Coaching: Tyson Helton > first-year Longo. Proven vs. trying.

UNC’s Call

Look, Sam Houston had a great story last year. Cute little underdog season, nice bow on it. But this is 2025. Their coach is gone, their roster is gutted, their defense is starting over, and they’re walking into Bowling Green to face a WKU offense that’s been quarterback heaven for a decade.

Vegas has the Hilltoppers at -10.5. I’m saying they cover that by halftime. McIvor is gonna come out slinging, the Tops’ defense will do just enough to force mistakes, and by the fourth quarter, Sam Houston fans will be googling “when does basketball season start.”

Prediction: WKU 33, Sam Houston 17.

The Bearkats are rebuilding. The Tops are reloading. And in college football, that’s the difference between competing for CUSA titles and catching Ls on CBS Sports Network in late August.