Week 2 Early Line Movers — What the Market’s Telling Us

Week 2 numbers are already dancing. Here are the biggest early spread moves off the Opener, plus what they likely mean. I’m listing the open → current and the net move in points.

Biggest moves (so far)

• Army at #17 Kansas State — K-State -14.5 → -17/-17.5 (▲ ~3.0)
  Market respect for K-State’s trench edge + Army’s Week 1 reset. Crossing -14.5 to -17 is no joke; you’re paying a premium now.
• Bowling Green at Cincinnati — CIN -18.5 → -21/-21.5 (▲ ~2.5 to 3.0)
  Straight steam on the favorite through the key 21. If you liked Cincy, best of the number is gone.
• #14 Michigan at #18 Oklahoma — OU -3 → -5.5 (▲ 2.5)
  Power-rating upgrade for OU + downgrade for UM after Week 1 tape. These half-points from 3 to 6 are costly; buyback could appear if it kisses -6.
• Tulsa at New Mexico State — Tulsa -2 → -3.5/-4 (▲ ~1.5 to 2.0)
  Early faith in Tulsa’s offense; moving through -3 signals sharper conviction.
• Northern Illinois at Maryland — MD -16.5 → -18/-18.5 (▲ ~1.5 to 2.0)
  Terps got bumped; not a key-number cross, but a steady favorite tick.
• Washington State vs San Diego State — WSU -3 → -1.5 (▼ 1.5 toward SDSU)
  Real movement to the dog, knocking the Cougs down off -3. Indicates resistance to WSU at a field goal.
• Hawaii vs Sam Houston State — Hawaii -9 → -7.5 (▼ 1.5 toward SHSU)
  Through -9/-8.5 toward the dog. -7 would be the big inflection; we’re not there (yet).
• UTSA vs Texas State — UTSA -5.5 → -4.5 (▼ 1.0 toward TXST)
  Smaller nudge to the dog; watch if this tests -4.
• James Madison at Louisville — UL -15.5 → -14/-14.5 (▼ ~1.0 to 1.5 toward JMU)
  Comes off the awkward -15.5 into a more liquid -14 range; dog interest showed up.
• BYU vs Stanford — BYU -19.5 → -18.5 (▼ 1.0 toward Stanford)
  Not key, but a clear early correction toward the Cardinal.
• #2 Penn State vs FIU — PSU -42.5 → -41.5 (▼ 1.0 toward FIU)
  These mega-lines ping-pong; a point here is mostly pricing feel, not a signal.
• Wisconsin vs Middle Tennessee — WISC -27.5 → -28.5 (▲ 1.0)
  A move onto 28 (college key-ish) favors the Badgers backers.
• Nebraska vs Akron — NEB -33.5 → -34/-34.5 (▲ ~0.5 to 1.0)
  Incremental favorites money. Above 34, resistance often shows.
• UAB at Navy — Navy -20.5 → -21.5 (▲ 1.0)
  Onto -21 and beyond. Books are testing appetite above the key.
• #7 Oregon vs Oklahoma State — ORE -27.5 → -28/-28.5 (▲ ~0.5 to 1.0)
  Ducks support after a solid opener; 28 is doing the heavy lifting.

UNC Notes & Angles

1) Steam through keys = signal, not noise

• Tulsa -2 → -3.5/-4 and Cincinnati -18.5 → -21/-21.5 matter more than a routine 1-point drift.
• K-State -14.5 → -17/-17.5 is the headliner. If you missed -14.5/-15, you’re paying top of market.

2) Dog resistance showing up

• WSU -3 → -1.5 says there’s real buy on San Diego State.
• Louisville -15.5 → -14/-14.5, BYU -19.5 → -18.5, Hawaii -9 → -7.5 all leaned to dogs without hitting major keys… yet.

3) Overreaction watch

• OU -3 → -5.5 feels like the classic Week-2 correction after opening-week narratives. If this tags -6, expect Michigan buyback from groups that live off key-number arbitrage.

4) CLV (closing line value) snapshot

• Early birds who grabbed K-State -14.5 and Tulsa -2/-2.5 are sitting on premium tickets.
• Late chasers on Cincy -21.5 are paying for the badge; you’ll need a clean cover, not a push.

5) Games I’d keep on “move watch”

• OU/Michigan: Does it touch -6? That’s the buyback tripwire.
• WSU/SDSU: If Cougs leak to -1 / PK, you’ll see two-way sharp action.
• K-State/Army: Any flirt with -17.5/-18 likely draws Army money in the limits phase.
• UTSA/Texas State: If it dips to -4, that’s a dog-friendly print; if it bounces back to -5.5, the market shrugged.

Quick cheat sheet

• Biggest favorite steam: K-State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Tulsa, Maryland.
• Dog sharping: SDSU, Sam Houston, JMU, Stanford, FIU.
• Key numbers involved: 3 (WSU), 7/6 (OU path), 14/17 (K-State), 21 (Cincy, Navy), 28 (Wisconsin, Oregon).