Kansas State vs. Iowa State: Dublin Showdown with Big 12 Stakes

The 2025 college football season isn’t strolling in quiet, it’s flying across the Atlantic to kick off with a Big 12 clash that could decide who’s still standing in December. No. 17 Kansas State and No. 22 Iowa State meet in Dublin, Ireland, in a Week 0 matchup that’s more than just pageantry. This one matters.

Why This Game Hits Different

It’s rare we see ranked-on-ranked action in Week 0. In fact, this is the first time in 25 years two ranked teams have opened the season. That’s not just hype, it’s opportunity. Both Kansas State and Iowa State are hunting for a Big 12 crown in a league where everybody thinks they’ve got a shot.

The odds market agrees: Kansas State sits tied at the top of the conference board, while Iowa State lurks just behind after last year’s trip to the Big 12 title game. With the playoff picture soon expanding, this game could turn into a December tiebreaker.

When Kansas State Has the Ball

Kansas State is at its best when the ground game is rolling downhill, but that formula hasn’t worked against Iowa State. The Cyclones’ odd-man fronts consistently blow up run lanes and frustrate Wildcat backs. Last year’s numbers tell the story: 18 carries for just 80 yards between DJ Giddens, Joe Jackson, and Dylan Edwards, with no missed tackles forced.

That’s not just a one-off either. Over the past three years, K-State’s offensive line has graded more than 10 points lower against Iowa State than anyone else. If the Cats can’t bully ISU up front, they’ll be stuck in obvious passing situations and that’s where their rhythm collapses.

Quarterback Avery Johnson gives them a spark as a runner, but unless Kansas State finds balance, Iowa State’s defense will dictate tempo.

When Iowa State Has the Ball

The big question mark is quarterback Rocco Becht. He’s without his top two wideouts from last year, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, both off to the NFL, and he’s playing behind a line that was already near the bottom of the Power Four.

But here’s the crack in Kansas State’s armor: their defense was far more effective against the run than the pass last year. They graded out 101st nationally in pass rush and 80th in coverage, and they lost their best edge rusher plus four of five starters in the secondary.

If Becht can just play efficient, keep the ball moving, and avoid costly mistakes, Iowa State’s offense has enough to take advantage.

X-Factors in Dublin

Neutral Site Weirdness: Travel, time zones, and first game jitters make this anything but a normal opener.
Big 12 Chaos Energy: The league is wide open, and both teams know this result could hang over the season.
Defensive Identity: Iowa State has made a living being the team that slows Kansas State’s power run game.

Broadway UNC’s Pick

This is a grind-it-out matchup, and Iowa State’s defense is tailor-made to frustrate Kansas State. The Wildcats are ranked higher, they’re favored, and they’ll get plenty of love. But in Dublin, with ISU’s fronts stalling the run and a shaky K-State secondary waiting to be tested…

Give me Iowa State +4.