🏈 College Football
Kentucky Wildcats 2025 Season Preview
Last season was Kentucky’s first losing campaign since 2015 and it showed in the trenches. With two new tackles, a stable QB in Zach Calzada, and a deep backfield, Stoops has the blueprint to bounce back. Bowl eligibility isn’t the goal. It’s the expectation.
Last Year Was Rock Bottom. Now It’s Rebuild or Regret.
🧠 Key to the Season:
Massive Roster Turnover. Minimal Margin for Error.
Kentucky hit 4–8 in 2024. The lowest win total since Stoops’ first year and the first winless SEC campaign since 2013. The bowl streak? Snapped at eight straight.
So what did Stoops do?
He flipped the roster.
“We have 50 new players,” Stoops said. “That’s the most we’ve ever had in the transfer era.”
Kentucky has just three returning starters on each side of the ball. That’s either a crisis or an opportunity — and this staff is betting on the latter.
💪 Key Player:
Zach Calzada, QB (Senior)
He started 10 games at A&M back in 2021. Then disappeared.
Now he’s back in the SEC, with a rebuilt O-line, a few reliable targets, and one more shot to show he’s a starter at this level.
If Calzada holds up, Kentucky’s offense should be functional again. If not, Cutter Boley is waiting.
🔁 Top Transfer Impact:
Seth McGowan, RB (Senior)
Kendrick Law, WR (Junior)
Shiyazh Pete, OT (Senior)
This group sets the tone for the bounce-back:
- McGowan racked up 1,100 yards last year at New Mexico State and adds burst + power.
- Law arrives from Alabama with serious weight room strength and WR1 potential.
- Pete and fellow OL transfers (Wibberley, Braun, Wollschlaeger) bring 100+ career starts combined. The line is no longer a liability.
📤 Biggest Losses:
- Dane Key, WR → Nebraska
- Barion Brown, WR → LSU
- Raynor, K (SEC Special Teams POY) → Graduated
Losing two key WRs and the best kicker in the conference hurts. But with incoming talent and a fresh OC system, the offense has a clean slate.
📆 Key Game:
vs Florida – November 8
Forget Georgia. Forget Texas. This is the barometer.
Florida comes to Lexington, and by November, we’ll know if this roster of 50+ new faces gelled or just looked good on paper. Win it, and Kentucky’s bowling. Lose it, and it could all fall apart.
🔟 Top 10 Wildcats to Know:
- Zach Calzada, QB – The bridge between rebuild and return.
- Seth McGowan, RB – Versatile, explosive, built for the SEC.
- Kendrick Law, WR – Physical, fast, needs to be WR1.
- Ja’Mori Maclin, WR – Led UK in TDs last year.
- Josh Kattus, TE – Veteran presence, red-zone target.
- Shiyazh Pete, OT – Anchor for the revamped line.
- Alex Afari Jr., LB – TFL machine, vocal leader.
- JQ Hardaway, CB – Big body, press corner.
- Jordan Lovett, S – Defensive tone-setter.
- Ty Bryant, DB – Under-the-radar playmaker.
📊 2024 Recap (Burn the Tape)
- 20.6 points per game – 119th in the country
- 1–7 in SEC play
- No bowl for the first time since 2015
There’s nowhere to go but up. And Stoops knows it.
🧨 Unc’s Outlook
This is the biggest roster flip of the Stoops era. It’s risky.
But it’s necessary.
The offense will be better…even if just by default. The O-line is veteran-heavy, the backs have SEC legs, and Calzada gives them a floor.
On defense, Brad White’s group is always tough — but they’ll need the new front seven to gel fast. The secondary is deep and experienced, with Lovett, Hardaway, and Bryant back.
The schedule is rough — especially the back half — but there are winnable games in August and September. If they come out hot, 6–6 is on the table.
🎯 The Call:
Win Total Projection: 5.5
Predicted Record: 6–6
Massive turnover. Modest expectations. One step forward.
🟢 Game Buckets:
Likely Wins:
- vs Toledo
- vs Eastern Michigan
- vs Tennessee Tech
Toss-Ups (50/50):
- vs Florida
- vs Ole Miss
- vs Tennessee
- at Auburn
- vs South Carolina
- at Vanderbilt
- at Louisville
Likely Losses:
- at Georgia
- vs Texas
- at South Carolina (tricky spot early)
🔥 Best ATS Performers (Undefeated Against the Spread)
- Florida State (2-0 ATS) – covering by wide margins early.
- Old Dominion (3-0 ATS) – flying under the radar, perfect vs the number.
- East Carolina (3-0 ATS) – strong start for bettors backing the Pirates.
- Vanderbilt (3-0 ATS) – cashing tickets, market may adjust soon.
- Georgia Tech (3-0 ATS) – sneaky value early.
- BYU (3-0 ATS) – Cougars keeping games close, good dog value.
- LSU (3-0 ATS) – chalk or not, Tigers are covering.
- Utah State (3-0 ATS) – Mountain West moneymaker.
- Indiana (3-0 ATS) – another underdog turning profits.
- Mississippi State (3-0 ATS) – Bulldogs rolling with consistency.
- James Madison (3-0 ATS) – Dukes keep cashing.
- Texas Tech (3-0 ATS) – strong vs market expectations.
🚨 Struggling ATS Teams
- Oregon (0-3 ATS) – winning, but not covering big numbers.
- Temple (0-3 ATS) – market fades proving correct so far.
- Nebraska (0-3 ATS) – 3-0 straight up but no covers.
- UTEP (0-3 ATS) – Miners are burning bettors.
- Saint Francis (0-3 ATS) – no traction early.
- USC (0-3 ATS) – public darling, but not paying out.
- Indiana State (0-3 ATS) – completely ice cold.
- Northwestern State (0-3 ATS) – fade-worthy.
- Bowling Green (0-3 ATS) – market overrating them.
- Cal (0-3 ATS) – Bears lagging vs expectations.
- Miami (OH) (0-3 ATS) – winless vs the number.
- Florida Atlantic (0-3 ATS) – struggling to meet lines.
- Wisconsin (0-3 ATS) – Badgers failing to cover.
- Arkansas State (0-3 ATS) – winless against the spread.
📌 Betting Tips
- Underdog Gold: Teams like Vanderbilt, Indiana, and James Madison are perfect ATS thanks to being undervalued by books.
- Overvalued Chalk: USC, Oregon, and Wisconsin are classic “public teams” that win straight up but fail to cover inflated spreads.
- Mid-major value: UTEP, Temple, and FAU remain fade material, while Old Dominion and East Carolina are early-season profit machines.
⚡ Key Takeaway: Don’t just bet records, bet perception. Teams like USC and Oregon are winning but bleeding ATS backers, while under-the-radar squads like James Madison and Old Dominion are quietly minting tickets.
As we roll into Week 4, Mother Nature is lining up to play defense in several key matchups. Wind and rain can be as impactful as injuries, forcing coaches to lean on the ground game, change tempo, and turn high-scoring shootouts into grind-it-out slugfests. Here’s where the forecast matters most:
💨 Wind Trouble Spots
- Army vs North Texas – Gusts of 12–14 mph expected. That is right in Army’s comfort zone, their ground-heavy style will not blink while NT’s pass game could sputter.
- Nebraska vs #21 Michigan – Winds 12–15 mph in Lincoln. Passing efficiency takes a hit, and this total already had Under money.
- Wisconsin vs Maryland – Breezes 10–12 mph with cooler temps. Wisconsin’s run-first approach fits the script.
- Kansas vs West Virginia – Forecast calling for 15+ mph winds. Passing and kicking could get ugly, making this one a prime Under candidate.
- Notre Dame vs Purdue – About 12 mph in South Bend. Irish offense already searching, wind may cap explosive plays.
- BYU vs East Carolina – Steady 10–12 mph in Provo. Slight lean Under, especially with two inconsistent passing attacks.
🌧️ Rain on the Radar
- Florida vs #4 Miami (FL) – Humid with scattered showers. Slick conditions could dampen Miami’s vertical passing and keep this closer than the line suggests.
- #13 Ole Miss vs Tulane – Light showers possible in New Orleans. Nothing severe, but could slow tempo and affect footing.
- Arkansas vs Memphis – Spotty rain with wind. If it lingers, Memphis’ balanced attack could lean heavier on the run.
🌙 Late-Night Chill
- #6 Oregon vs Oregon State – Clear skies, temps dipping into the low 50s. Advantage Ducks with depth, but expect some slower starts.
- #25 USC vs Michigan State – Mid-50s and breezy. Ball control might play a bigger role than expected.
- Colorado vs Wyoming – Cool, around 50°, with altitude in play. Passing may get tested late in the game.
📌 Takeaways
- Unders are in play across the Midwest: Nebraska, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Kansas/WVU all project as wind-impacted totals.
- Rain threats in Florida, Ole Miss/Tulane, and Arkansas/Memphis games could mute explosive plays and favor underdogs.
- Late-night edges point to tempo dips in the Pac-12 and Big Ten matchups, with USC, Oregon, and Colorado games all leaning cooler and slower.
⚡ Bottom line: Weather is a hidden line mover. Pay attention before you fire. Today’s board has multiple matchups where wind and rain might dictate the pace more than the oddsmakers.
The Week 4 slate is already buzzing, with oddsmakers making heavy adjustments from the openers. Here’s a breakdown of where the biggest shifts have landed:
🚨 Major Swings & Flips
- Army vs North Texas – Opener NT -1.5, now Army -2.5. A full 4-point swing and outright flip to Army.
- Nebraska vs Michigan (#21) – Wolverines opened -3.5, now around -1/PK. Strong early backing on the home Huskers.
- Notre Dame (#24) vs Purdue – Irish fell from -27.5 → -24.5/-25.5. Bettors fading ND’s heavy chalk after a slow start.
- Miami (FL) (#4) vs Florida – Canes trimmed from -9.5 → -7/-7.5. Big move toward the Gators.
- Ole Miss (#13) vs Tulane – Rebels dropped from -12.5 → -10.5/-11. Tulane earning sharp respect.
📉 Money Against the Favorites
- Texas vs Sam Houston St – Longhorns -41.5 → -39. Few bettors eager to lay over 40.
- Western Kentucky vs Nevada – Hilltoppers -11.5 → -9.5. Market grabbing Nevada.
- Missouri (#23) vs South Carolina – Tigers cut from -11.5 → -9.5/-10. SC backers piling in.
📈 Steam on the Favorites
- Wisconsin vs Maryland – Badgers opened -7.5, now -9.5/-10. Early Wisconsin money showing.
- Boise State @ Air Force – Broncos -9.5 → -11/-12. Market siding with Boise.
- Oklahoma (#11) vs Auburn (#22) – Sooners -5.5 → -6.5. Sharps laying the number.
- Kansas vs West Virginia – KU -11.5 → -12.5/-13.5. Confidence in Jayhawks’ offense.
📝 Takeaways
- Two outright flips (Army, Nebraska) define this week’s action.
- Public darlings fading: Notre Dame, Miami, and Ole Miss all seeing resistance.
- Sharps boosting Big Ten power: Wisconsin money is strong.
- Underdog bites: Nevada, Sam Houston, and South Carolina all drawing buy-back.
Ole Miss fans should’ve left Kroger Field celebrating a hard-fought SEC road win. Instead, anyone holding a betting slip was either popping champagne or throwing it across the room after Kentucky pulled one of the strangest late-game moves in recent memory: a field goal with 10 seconds left to cut the score to 30–23.
Rebels Get Their Revenge
No. 20 Ole Miss (2–0) avenged last year’s 20–17 home loss to Kentucky by doing what Lane Kiffin teams do best—piling up yards and explosive plays.
- Kewan Lacy: 138 rushing yards and a touchdown, carrying the load and chewing clock.
- Austin Simmons: 235 passing yards, overcoming two early interceptions that had the Rebels in a 10–0 hole.
- Harrison Wallace III: 117 receiving yards, including a 55-yard bomb that flipped the game’s momentum.
Ole Miss finished with 457 yards of offense and four plays of 20+ yards. They’re averaging 575 yards per game through two weeks. That’s PlayStation numbers.
Kentucky Fights, But…
The Wildcats (1–1, 0–1 SEC) extended their losing streak in league play to eight games. Zach Calzada threw for 149 yards before leaving with a shoulder injury, while Seth McGowan provided the punch with 88 yards and two touchdowns.
Defensive back Ty Bryant was a first-half star, snagging two interceptions in back-to-back possessions that Kentucky turned into touchdowns. The Wildcats led early, but Ole Miss’ offense eventually wore them down.
Then Came the Kick
Down 10 points with seconds left, Kentucky lined up for a field goal. Not a Hail Mary, not a desperate end-zone shot, a field goal. The snap, the hold, the kick—good. Final score: 30–23.
On the field, it meant nothing. For bettors, it meant everything. Kentucky was a 9.5-point underdog. That kick? The ultimate backdoor cover.
- Ole Miss -9.5 bettors: “We hate this team forever.”
- Kentucky +9.5 bettors: “Mark Stoops is a genius.”
- Everyone else: “Wait… why are they kicking?”
The Bigger Picture
For Ole Miss, it’s a résumé win and proof this offense can travel. Lane Kiffin’s crew is 2–0, averaging over 1,100 yards across their first two games, and set to keep climbing in the polls.
For Kentucky, the effort was there, the execution wasn’t. Eight straight SEC losses is a nasty stat, but Stoops praised the fight of his team: “I like the way they fight and scrap. They’ll improve.” Maybe so. But in the meantime, the Wildcats will be remembered for kicking a field goal that mattered only in Vegas.
Up Next
- Ole Miss: Hosts Arkansas next Saturday.
- Kentucky: Hosts Eastern Michigan in a game that’s unlikely to cause quite as much chaos—unless Stoops lines up another last-second field goal for the spread.
College Football ATS Standings – Week 4 Snapshot
🔥 Best ATS Performers (Undefeated Against the Spread) 🚨 Struggling ATS Teams 📌 Betting Tips ⚡ Key Takeaway: Don’t just...
Weather Watch: NCAA Football Week 4 Betting Impact
As we roll into Week 4, Mother Nature is lining up to play defense in several key matchups. Wind and...
Biggest Line Movers – NCAA Football Week 4
The Week 4 slate is already buzzing, with oddsmakers making heavy adjustments from the openers. Here’s a breakdown of where...
